What Is Chase Rate In Baseball

How three MLB pitchers excel at getting hitters to chase, and what it could mean for 2020 season

In baseball, commanding the strike zone is really essential. A lot of success comes to the batters who use this strategy, as well as a lot of success for the pitchers who use this strategy. A pitcher’s mastery of the strike zone does not imply that he or she must just toss strikes. It entails delivering high-quality blows. The ability to pitch around the borders of the plate, or even just off the plate, is essential. That’s what it means to be in command of the zone. Last week, we looked at three position players that made significant strides in their defensive performance over the course of the season.

When you have to reach for a pitch, it is difficult to square it up or even get the bat on it.

In his four seasons with the Marlins, he was moved twice, once to the Padres and then back to the Marlins three days later.

It’s possible that it’s the finest right-handed changeup to come around since Trevor Hoffman.

  1. Example: Despite throwing far fewer pitches in the strike zone last season, Castillo, still just 27 years old, established himself as an ace-caliber starter.
  2. Castillo’s zone rate dropped to 39.3 percent in the previous year.
  3. Unsurprisingly, fewer pitches in the strike zone resulted in an increase in the number of walks.
  4. More pitches outside of the strike zone, on the other hand, are not always a bad thing.
  5. Last season, hitters chased 36.5 percent of Castillo’s pitches beyond the strike zone, which was the sixth highest pursuit percentage in MLB.
  6. The result is that they either swing and miss because they are unable to reach the ball or make poor contact because they are unable to square the ball up properly.
Zone % Chase % Strikeout % Exit velocity Hard-hit rate
2018 48.2% 32.9% 23.3% 88.1 mph 39.5%
2019 39.3% 36.2% 28.9% 86.4 mph 33.6%
Change -8.9% +3.3% +5.6% -1.7 mph -5.9%

Despite throwing 21 more innings in 2019, Castillo allowed 13 fewer runs in 2019 than he did in 2020. Castillo’s stuff is so fantastic – go back and watch that video again; he can throw his changeup down the middle and the natural movement will carry it out of the zone – that hitters followed him down more often, resulting in more strikeouts and a lot of poor contact on the ball. Possibly there is room for Castillo to throw a couple of more strikes in the near future. He might be able to reduce his walk rate a little without significantly impacting his strikeout rate or the amount of poor contact he allows.

  • The ability to maintain an excellent chase rate while not having a high walk rate, akin to the chase-rate gods Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg, and Justin Verlander, among others.
  • “Despite the fact that I achieved my first two objectives (starting Opening Day and making the All-Star Game in 2019), I aim to achieve three objectives.
  • I believe that, with this squad of experienced on our side, we can accomplish our goals together.” Joe Musgroveis a well-liked pitcher in this area of the country.
  • His chase rate of 36.2 percent in 2018 was similar to Castillo’s and was also a smidgeon lower than the previous year’s record of 37.7 percent.
  • Musgrove’s ability to elicit swings on pitches beyond the strike zone is a result of his extensive repertoire, which includes two high-spin breaking balls (the curveball and slider) as well as a changeup that frequently falls off the table.
  • Because of this, batters have less time to react, and Musgrove has a greater tolerance for mistake.
  • In his former role as Pirates pitching coach, Ray Searage advocated for an old-school strategy that included “pounding the bottom of the zone with fastballs to induce quick ground balls.” Coach Oscar Marin, the club’s new pitching coach, has a more scientific approach to his job.
  • It appeared like the Rapsodo and the figures and information that had been made available to us were being used in an analytical manner last year, but some of the information was getting lost in the translation from the analytical experts to the players, Musgrove said in February.

Fortunately, we now have various channels of contact, as well as continuous feedback.” In recent years, the Pirates have let a few too many pitchers with high-end underlying skills slip away and achieve their peak with other teams, which has hurt the organization (Gerrit Cole,Tyler Glasnow,Charlie Morton, etc.).

There’s space for improvement here, and the Pirates are hopeful that Marin can assist Musgrove in putting it all together in his new jersey.

Masahiro Tanaka chooses to zig when everyone else chooses to zag.

An assortment of sliders and splitters, as well as some curveballs, are used to put batters to sleep instead of hitting them hard.

Tanaka has established himself as the best chase rate pitcher in baseball, mostly due to his high-quality offspeed deliveries. His chase rates during the previous five seasons have been as follows:

  • 2015: 39.0 percent (second highest in MLB)
  • 2016: 37.8 percent (fourth highest in MLB)
  • 2017: 42.2 percent (highest in MLB)
  • 2018: 40.7 percent (highest in MLB)
  • 2019: 39.9 percent (highest in MLB)

Tanaka’s chase rate of 40.0 percent from 2015 to 2019 is the highest in MLB by a wide amount, according to Baseball Reference. Carlos Carrascois is in second place with 37.5 percent of the vote. The distance between positions 1 and 2 is the same as the distance between positions 2 and 12. The fact that Tanaka has a lifetime 4.9 percent walk rate despite relying so heavily on persuading batters to extend their strike zone is astounding given his approach. It is, in fact, true. Despite having the greatest chase rate in baseball last season, Tanaka’s chase rate was lower than it had been the previous two seasons, and it is not a coincidence that this occurred during a season in which he struggled with the baseball.

  1. “I’ve always tried to stick with the grip that I’ve always used for the splitter and made small adjustments to get the movement that I want,” Tanaka told the New York Post in July.
  2. When it’s good, it’s very good, but when it’s terrible, it’s been quite horrible, as we all know by now.
  3. The fact that I had to do something as dramatic as altering the grip was one of the main reasons.” Due to Tanaka’s inability to constantly reach back and pitch a fastball by the batter when he is in trouble, his margin for error is not particularly large.
  4. That’s why he posted a 4.79 ERA in 21 starts with his previous splitter grip last season and a lot more acceptable 3.50 ERA in his new splitter grip this season.
  5. We have no notion how the baseball season will unfold in the year 2020.
  6. If the ball has more tack and Tanaka is able to regain control of his splitter, his chase rate might return to the levels seen in 2017.

Major League Baseball Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics

The speed at which a ball was struck by a hitter, measured in miles per hour. The angle at which a ball was struck by a hitter, measured in degrees. In other words, a hit ball with the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle A ‘hard-hit ball’ is defined as one that has an exit velocity of 95 mph or above, according to Statcast. Batted ball competition with a launch angle ranging from eight to 32 degrees is held every year. A Batted Ball Event is a representation of any batted ball that results in an event.

  • The movement of a pitch is measured in inches, both in terms of raw numbers and as a comparison to the mean.
  • The amount of spin applied to a pitch was measured in revolutions per minute.
  • The amount of time it takes for a catcher to get the ball out of his glove and to the base when attempting a stolen base or pickoff attempt.
  • Time from one base to another How much time, in seconds, it takes a runner to go from one base to another, for as from Home Base to First Base.
  • When a pitcher makes his first movement or releases his pitch, the distance a runner is ranging off the bag is measured in feet.
  • A range-based indicator of talent that indicates how many outs a player has saved in comparison to his or her competitors.
  • xBA is a statistic that indicates the chance that a batted ball will be hit.
  • xERA is a straightforward 1:1 translation of xwOBA that has been translated to the ERA scale.

MLB Leaders in Chase Rate & 100 MPH Batted Balls

Given that the fantasy baseball season has only been underway for a little over a week, let’s take a quick look at the leaders in a few numbers and what to look out for with a few key players. Keep in mind that certain baseball statistics require longer time to settle before they can be considered more reliable than other statistics. The focus of this article will be on the pitching leaders in terms of pursuit rate (O-Swing percent) and swings and missed opportunities. There aren’t many batters with exit velocity more than 100 mph, but there are a few names who stand out among the rest of the pack in this category.

After that, let’s take a look at two of the more intriguing results for baseball.

Pitcher Leaders in O-Swing%Swings/Misses

Given that the fantasy baseball season has only been underway for a little more than a week, let’s take a quick look at the leaders in a few numbers and what to look out for with a few key players. Please keep in mind that certain baseball statistics need a longer period of time to settle before they become more reliable than others. The pitching leaders in pursuit rate (O-Swing percent) and swings and misses will be examined in this article. There aren’t many batters with exit velocity more than 100 mph, but there are a few names that stand out among the rest of the field.

So, let us take a look at two of the most intriguing possibilities for baseball.

Hitters With an Exit Velocity of At Least 100 MPH

Yuli Gurriel and Michael A. Taylor are the only batters in the top ten who stand out because they each have nine batted balls that have an exit velocity of at least 100 miles per hour. Gurriel is a stale veteran who put up respectable numbers in 2019, hitting 31 home runs, driving in 85 runs, driving in 104 RBI, and stealing five bases while batting.298. Even though Gurriel struggled in 2020, he still managed to hit six home runs, drive in 27 runs, and drive in 22 runs with his 22 RBIs. Gurriel is hammering the ball in the early goings of 2021, with a 66.7 percent hard-hit rate and an 11.1 percent barrel rate.

  • Gurriel is most certainly on the verge of a strong start to the season.
  • Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Jeimer Candelario, Max Muncy, and José Ramirez are among the other noteworthy names that are tied for eighth place.
  • Taylor and Willi Castro, both of whom have emerged as early-season shocks in their respective leagues.
  • His batting average is.391, and he has two home runs, four runs, and six RBI.
  • Despite the fact that it is early in the season, Taylor finds himself on a list of great hitters.
  • Willi Castro, the Tigers’ shortstop, made advantage of the chance presented to him by Niko Goodrum’s injury in 2020.
  • Castro, on the other hand, has a high BABIP and hitting average throughout his minor league career, thus his batting average is likely to continue high, but not as high as in 2020.
  • His four hit balls traveled at speeds of 110.8, 103.6, 107.6, and 107.6 mph during Wednesday’s defeat to the Minnesota Twins.
  • Castro outperformed his predicted maximum escape velocity from 2020 by over six miles per hour, fantastic!

Castro is making more contact and decreasing his pursuit rate, despite the fact that the sample size is tiny. Making more forceful contact while chasing fewer balls suggests that some strong performances are on the way. Under the hood, keep an eye on the variations in plate discipline.

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Corbin Young

Corbin is a fantasy baseball and football enthusiast who enjoys watching the game. He enjoys delving into and learning about advanced analytics, which he finds fascinating. Originally from the Pacific Northwest, Corbin is a fan of the Seattle Mariners and Seattle Seahawks. Weightlifting, cooking, and listening to fantasy sports podcasts are some of Corbin’s other interests.

Plate Discipline (O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, etc.)

We can know by looking at Plate Disciplinestatistics how often a hitter swings and makes contact with certain kind of pitches, or how often a pitcher generates swings or contact with specific types of pitches. Our site includes a number of plate discipline statistics that are derived from two different data sources (Baseball Info Solutions and PITCHf/x) and can be found here. These statistics are extremely valuable in establishing the sort of hitter or pitcher you’re looking for, and changes in these statistics may often be symptomatic of underlying changes in a player’s approach.

  1. Please keep in mind that the information for these comes from two distinct sources.
  2. O-Swing percent is calculated as follows: swings at pitches beyond the zone divided by pitches outside the zone.
  3. Swing percent is calculated as follows: Swings / Pitches Number of pitches on which contact was made outside the zone divided by the number of swings on pitches outside the zone equals the O-Contact percent.
  4. SwStr percent = Swings and misses divided by the total number of pitches Plate discipline leaderboards for hitters according to BIS statistics are shown below, while similar leaderboards according to PITCHf/x data are shown below.
  5. Our BIS data updates nightly during the season, although on a delayed basis, so keep in mind that the most recent games may not be included when utilizing that specific set of statistics.
  6. We are quite interested in result statistics such as BB percent, K percent, wOBA, and so on, but we are also interested in understanding some of the underlying causes at play.
  7. In addition, we have a measure that shows you how often he swings at pitches outside the zone, as well as how frequently he swings at all pitches.

When a hitter swings, we have a statistic that shows you how often contact is made with the ball.

Although a player can achieve success with a wide range of discipline numbers, understanding them will assist you in determining the player’s style and ability to succeed.

As long as you understand the numerator and denominator of each statistic (as described above), you should be able to apply these figures with confidence.

However, you should keep in mind that plate discipline metrics should be interpreted in the context of other statistics.

While making a lot of contact on pitches outside of the zone may be beneficial, if you’re swinging at a lot of terrible pitches and grounding out weakly, that’s not a very valuable event to be involved in.

As a general rule, you should swing at pitches against which you can make strong contact; nevertheless, the set of pitches against which you can make solid contact is not always simply defined by in and out of zone.

While these metrics are calculated on a per-pitch basis, which allows them to yield vast samples of data over the course of a season, it is important to realize that they are subject to random volatility at any one moment in time.

While it’s more probable that towards the conclusion of a season you’ll be looking at a true trend than if you’re looking at a single season of ISO, it doesn’t mean you can draw judgments about players based on short samples of these numbers.

Check out the FanGraphs leaderboards to see the league-average plate discipline figures for every year from 2002 to the present.

However, the data from PITCHf/x is very comparable to that of the BIS in this table. Please keep in mind that the actual definition of the striking zone changes depending on the source and the year in question.

Stat Average
O-Swing 30%
Z-Swing 65%
Swing 46%
O-Contact 66%
Z-Contact 87%
Contact 80%
Zone 45%
F-Strike 59%
SwStr 9.5%

Remember that these statistics may be used to evaluate both batters and pitchers, with SwStr percent being particularly valuable when assessing pitchers. Winning percentage (SwStr percent – swinging strikes per pitch) should not be confused with whiff rate, which is the proportion of balls in play (swinging strikes per swing). As a result, slight changes in these data should be expected even when the player performs in exactly the same manner regardless of the source, the year, or the umpire in question.

  1. Despite the fact that heavy contact is beneficial to batters and detrimental to pitchers in general, there is no optimal plate discipline setup.
  2. If your Contact percentage is high, you can be a lousy hitter.
  3. Listed below are some further reading resources: FanGraphs provides statistics on plate discipline.
  4. Hardball Times — Plate Discipline Statistics in Action The Expansion of the Strike Zone has Gone Out of Control – Hardball Times

Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds – Chase Rate For Week 19

We’re back with another installment of RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series. Each week, I’ve chosen an advanced stat, chosen two top performers and two underperformers, and then analyzed what those stats could mean for future fantasy output from the players in question. This week, I’ll be focusing on a metric that has the potential to have significant implications for fantasy production: the chase rate. The chase rate is the percentage of swings taken by hitters at pitches that are outside of the strike zone.

  • If a pitcher is able to achieve success without entering the strike zone, it is likely that they are deceiving hitters in some way.
  • As I have done throughout this series, I will not focus on obvious fantasy studs for this article.
  • With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at some chase rate studs and duds!
  • Exclusive access to our preseason Draft Kit,1 accuracy rankings, ATC and CUTTER forecasts, 15 in-season lineup tools, DFS cheat sheets, Research Stations, Lineup Optimizers and much more!

Chase Rate Studs

As of Sunday, August 1, 2021, all statistics are up-to-date.

Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees

This first pitcher is having his greatest season since making his professional debut in 2017. Jordan Montgomery has long been considered a fantasy prospect, but he hasn’t really contributed much over the last several seasons due to a lack of playing time. So far in 2021, he has had a 3.78 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 24.3 percent strikeout rate, which is a significant improvement over his previous season. One statistic that sticks out is his chase rate of 31.6 percent, which ranks him 10th among qualifying pitchers and is the highest in the league.

  • Montgomery has a unique pitch mix, throwing five pitches at least 10 percent of the time, which is rather impressive.
  • Unsurprisingly, his curveball has the greatest chase rate among his offerings, accounting for 42.9 percent of all pitches thrown.
  • With his pitch, he doesn’t have a lot of movement, with only 13 percent less vertical movement and 83 percent less horizontal movement than the average player.
  • As a result, Montgomery’s pitches outside of the zone are more likely to be hit by pitches, with a swing-and-miss percentage of 47 percent on pitches thrown outside of the zone for Montgomery.
  • Off-speed pitches account for a large portion of his repertoire, which hasn’t resulted in a high number of strikeouts, but has resulted in a high number of chases, swings-and-misses on those chases, and a higher-than-average batted-ball profile.
  • Considering he has an improved supporting cast, I don’t see why Montgomery can’t continue to provide solid middle-of-the-rotation assistance for fantasy managers for the remainder of the season.

Ryan Yarbrough, Tampa Bay Rays

Despite the fact that he is not the most exciting pitcher, this next pitcher has always been a reliable streamer or back-of-the-rotation option in fantasy baseball. Ryan Yarbrough is once again putting up respectable stats this season, posting a 4.38 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a chase rate of 31.2 percent, which ranks him 13th among qualifying pitchers in the league. What role does Yarbrough’s chase rate have in his overall success? When you look at Yarbrough’s entire pitching profile, his chase rate makes sense.

  • As a result, in order to be effective, he must pitch at an advantageous spot.
  • With his changeup, he pound the low-outside corner of the plate for right-handed batters, and with his slider/curveball, he pound the inner half of the plate for right-handed hitters.
  • The fact that he doesn’t get many swing-and-misses on his pitches out of the zone or on any of his pitches in general means that his batted-ball profile is strong.
  • Up to this point, his 4.22 SIERA suggests that he has performed exactly as predicted.
  • He doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses, and he doesn’t strike out a lot of opponents.

For the second straight season, Yarbrough has delivered on his promise, providing fantasy managers with steady production as a back-end rotation component. He may be more valuable in points leagues than roto ones, but he shouldn’t be a liability for fantasy managers in any format.

Chase RateDuds

As of Sunday, August 1, 2021, all statistics are up-to-date.

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds

Since the beginning of his major-league career, this pitcher has been a source of excitement for fantasy managers. T.J. Mahle finally found his stride in 2020, and he’s been on a roll ever since, compiling an 8-3 record with a 3.71 earned-run average, 1.23 WHIP, and a 28.2 percent strikeout rate thus far in 2021. His chase rate of 25.8 percent, on the other hand, is tied for the ninth lowest among qualified pitchers. If not through inducing batters to pursue pitches, how has Mahle achieved his level of success?

  • The fact that he does not receive many swings at pitches outside of the zone is offset by the fact that he throws a large number of pitches outside of the zone; his out-of-zone rate of 53 percent is tied for ninth highest among all qualifying pitchers.
  • Even though his fastball exhibits above-average vertical and horizontal movement, hitters may be able to better track it into the plate and, as a result, refrain from attacking his pitches outside of the strike zone.
  • In the first place, he has allowed above-average contact, as seen by his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, which are in the 55th and 74th percentiles, respectively, of the league.
  • He has also received a significant number of swings and misses in the zone; his 23.4 percent swing-and-miss rate on pitches in the zone is tied for the seventh-highest in the league.
  • In terms of batted ball profile, he has an above-average profile and has had swings and misses in the zone, which has resulted in a high strikeout percentage.
  • Although it is not necessary for hitters to get chased in order to be successful, I am concerned that Mahle’s attitude to pitching may come back to get him at some moment.

Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves

Our last pitcher was a late bloomer in fantasy baseball, but he has been a consistent performer for several seasons. Charlie Morton, at 37 years old, is still going strong, with a 10-4 record this season while posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 27.7 percent strikeout rate. One statistic that hasn’t been very impressive is his 26.7 percent chase rate, which ranks him 13th among qualified pitchers. Consider the specifics of how the veteran has accomplished his goal further. In addition to the fact that Morton does not throw many pitches out of the zone (49.5 percent of his throws), the fact that he does not receive many chases helps to mitigate this.

In this vein, Morton’s above-average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, along with his 7.7-degree launch angle, have resulted in him making only limited and potentially damaging contact.

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All of this might be attributed to a well-balanced pitch blend.

Morton is a seasoned veteran pitcher who has maintained his dominance even in his 37th season.

Despite the fact that he does not get many hitters to chase him, he has above-average stats across the board. It appears as though Morton will be a pitcher that fantasy managers can rely on as they strive to make the fantasy playoffs in the final weeks of the season.

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More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis

O-Swing percent (also known as Chase Rate) is a plate discipline measure that may be calculated. Using this formula, you can calculate how many out of the zone pitches a hitter swings at compared to how many overall out of the zone pitches the hitter sees throughout his career. This statistic reveals which hitters are the best and worst at distinguishing between strikes and balls. A 30 percent league average is achieved by averaging the lowest numbers, which are just over 14 percent, and the highest ones, which are just below 52 percent.

  1. The x-axis represents the swing percentages, while the y-axis represents the frequency distribution.
  2. Prepare for your fantasy baseball draft with the help of our award-winning fantasy baseball tools.
  3. So what exactly is the point of this?
  4. Let’s take a look at a scatter plot to find out more.
  5. This is a useful graphic representation of how one variable influences another.
  6. To be sure, it follows logically from the fact that the best strategy to draw a walk is to avoid swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone.
  7. 1.
  1. Look for batters with a high on-base percentage. Despite the fact that their o-swing percent was low, there are batters who did not have a very low walk rate based on their performance. That fact might be due to a random event, and it should get more accurate with time. A few dots appear on the graph for players who were only pursuing pitches approximately 8 percent of the time, but who nevertheless had an average walk rate of 3.2 percent (6 percent -10 percent ). Consider the fact that this is an extremely unusual occurrence and is unlikely to occur again for that hitter
  2. Look for potential breakthroughs. The absolute greatest hitters in the league all have an exceptional batter’s eye, which is a rare talent. The ability to recognize the kind and position of the pitch as quickly as possible is critical to successful hitting. This talent will express itself in a batter who does not swing at balls that are beyond of his or her strike zone. It is beneficial to look at these plate discipline stats for young players since they can provide you with an indication of their genuine potential

There are two statistics that are extremely similar to the one presented here. The Z-Swing percent (zone swing rate) is the same as the Z-Swing percent (zone swing rate), with the exception that it is tracking pitches thrown within of the strike zone. Swing percent is simply the percentage of the time a batter swings at every pitch thrown at him. All of these data are really valuable for delving a little further into the evaluation of individual players. We encourage you to visit our sabermetrics website if you appreciated this essay and want to learn more about advanced statistics.

Subscribe on the following platforms: Apple Podcasts|Google Play|SoundCloud|Stitcher|TuneIn Jon Anderson writes for FantasyPros as a featured author.

Hit It, Hit It Hard, Don’t Chase

Earlier this week, MLB’s Mike Petriello wrote an intriguing study in which he examined the Statcast measures that were most closely associated with club success in 2020. While the whole article is worth reading, I’ll cut to the chase and give you the executive summary: So: What is important this year? The same thing is important year after year. In order to be successful as a pitcher, you must strike out as many batters as possible. There is nothing more essential. It’s important to create as much loud contact with the target as possible, ideally in the air.

  • Hitters’ success is measured by the amount of hard contact they make when they do connect rather than the number of times they make contact.
  • To put it another way, try to do as much harm as possible.
  • It’s easy to see in the image above that the Giants have actually done a better job than most other teams in baseball this year in terms of accomplishing this; as of last Friday, they were ranked 8th in the league in the “Barrel” % category, which is calculated by Statcast.
  • Oh yeah.

When you put all of it together, you get the 8th greatest wOBA (weighted On Base Average, which analyzes all offensive contributions and weights them according to their worth in generating runs) in MLB, as well as the 7th best wRC+ (runs created per game) (weighted Runs Created which includes external factors like park effects and then adjusts so that 100 is league average, 150 is 50 percent better than league average, etc).

  1. While their improved ability to smash the ball hard has contributed to much of their success this season, as Petriello points out in the piece above, barrels account for just around 7 percent of all batted balls and only about 1 percent of all pitches.
  2. So let’s get a bit more into this.
  3. Color coordination is also important – the red represents heat and the blue represents cold.
  4. Whatayamean Donovan Solano has a poor arm when it comes to barreling baseballs?
  5. Isn’t it true that Barreling is his entire danged raisin debt?
  6. Okay, I’m not going to hide my feelings on this – the title of this post gives away what I’m thinking.
  7. Although they are not equally vital (making strong contact is the most crucial), those three components of hitting may be combined in a variety of effective ways.

However, the metrics that Statcast makes publicly available are truly shedding fresh — and extremely accurate — light on old ways of thinking.

Brandon Belt’s offensive style is distinguished by the fact that he practically never chases pitches outside of the strike zone.

Even better, when he makes contact with a ball, he barrels it with incredible regularity.

This, paired with his well-known keen eye, has propelled him to the top of the leaderboards despite a greater than average proclivity to fumble.

Belt’s “expected” numbers are among the best in the game since they are based on quality of contact.

In Oracle Park, he has finally discovered an offensive setting that rewards his abilities — and what a coincidence that it is so!

On Statcast’s Swing/Take measurement, he ranks high in terms of hitting the ball hard (78th percentile in Barrel percent and 83rd percentile in balls hit harder than 95 mph), yet he doesn’t chase after pitches, earning a total of 10 “Take Runs” on the pitching statistic: Dickerson’s strikeout rate of 17 percent is considerably higher than the average for major leaguers in our present strikeout-prone era.

  1. In terms of strikeouts, he’s in the 79th percentile of all pitchers.
  2. In contrast, Mike Yastrzemski has been more like Belt in his approach to baseball.
  3. And he’s been particularly effective at making strong contact – his 54 balls hit over 95 mph rank second on the club, trailing only Evan Longoria, and his average launch angle (just under 20 degrees) is designed to propel those hard hit balls into the air, where they can do the most damage.
  4. Because he adheres to the strikezone with such rigor, he, like Belt, limits the potential of pitchers to exploit his swing and miss inclination.
  5. His 140 wRC+ ranks him sixth on the club, and everyone who follows the 2020 Giants has grown to appreciate his clutch at-bats in recent years.
  6. However, Solano’s 47 batted balls do not necessarily indicate that he does not smash the ball hard.
  7. But keep in mind that “Barrels” is a mix of striking the ball forcefully while also hitting it in the air at a launch angle that enhances success.

This isn’t something Donnie Barrels is particularly good at.

He does, in fact, make contact!

And another thing he does really well is hit line drives!

This year, his 41 percent Line Drive percentage is more than 15 percent higher than the league average, according to the stats.

In terms of pitch selection, Solano isn’t very refined, as seen by his tendency to swing far over average and chase after pitches outside the zone, but his ability to make consistent contact across the entire hitting zone has more than compensated for that flaw this season.

Dubon has been a maestro of poor contact this season, with his exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrels all rating among the lowest 20 percent of big leaguers this year, according to Baseball Reference.

Despite this, he has managed to be a nearly-league average hitter due to the fact that he makes a good amount of contact.

Despite the fact that there is more blue than you would like to see on the chart above (and BABIP regression would be devastating to him), he has been able to defend his spot in the lineup mostly because his K percent, Whiff rate, and predicted BA are all above average.

In contrast, the problems that scuffling Joey Bart has been having this year have escalated because he hasn’t been able to secure any of the three legs that he needs to stand on.

The first step out of the hole he’s been in is to choose one of those three things that he does very well and devote all of his attention to it.

Over the course of the year, Tromp has been a dismal performer with the stick.

He has a 219 on-base percentage.

He understands how to throw a hard fastball.

Because of this, it appears that Chadwick Tromp will, almost inexplicably, be the Giants’ leading catcher in terms of home runs this season.

You can achieve some degree of success simply by being a really good canary yellow or a pure blue in appearance.

However, in order to be really effective, it is preferable to vary it up – it is preferable to be a purple hitter rather than an orange or green hitter.

Excellent contact hitter who maintains his position in the zone.

And, of course, the ultimate superstar is the one who can bring these three aspects together.

A Mookie Betts is the result of a combination of the above characteristics (99th percentile in Whiff percent , 81st in Hard Hit, Chase Rate well below average).

As the Los Angeles Dodgers have demonstrated for years, so too have thebang, bangAstros displayed an offensive profile similar to this. The Giants are also attempting to establish an offensive profile throughout their lineup, which is taking time to accomplish. Please leave a comment.

On This Date in History:

In an intriguing post released earlier this week, MLB’s Mike Petriello examined the Statcast metrics that were most closely associated with club performance in 2020. While the whole thing is worth reading, I’ll cut to the chase and give you the highlights: So: The question is, what is important this year. Every year, the same thing is important. In order to be successful as a pitcher, you must strike out as many hitters as possible. Nothing is more important than this moment in your life. As much loud contact as possible, preferably in the air, should be made when hitting someone.

  • Hitters’ success is measured by the amount of hard contact they make when they do connect rather than the number of times they make contact.
  • Or, to put it another way, make the most amount of harm you can do.
  • It’s easy to see in the image above that the Giants have actually done a better job than most other teams in baseball this season in terms of accomplishing this; as of last Friday, they were ranked 8th in the league in the “Barrel” % category, which is calculated by Statcast.
  • Oh yeah.
  • Indeed.
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Combining these criteria yields the 8th greatest wOBA (weighted On Base Average, which analyzes all offensive contributions and weights them according to their importance in generating runs) in MLB, as well as the 7th best wRC+ (runs created plus earned run average) (weighted Runs Created which includes external factors like park effects and then adjusts so that 100 is league average, 150 is 50 percent better than league average, etc).

  • Even if their improved ability to smash the ball hard has contributed to much of their success this season, as Petriello points out in the piece above, barrels account for just about 7% of all batted balls and only about 1% of all pitches.
  • So let’s delve a little more into the subject matter.
  • When it comes to barreling the baseball, whatayamean Donovan Solano is awful.
  • Ain’t it true that he’s in a heap of raisin trouble?
  • Let me be clear about something: the title of this piece gives away what I’m about to write about.
  • These three components of hitting are not equally significant (making hard contact is the most crucial), but they are capable of being combined in a number of beneficial ways.
  • Nevertheless, the metrics that Statcast makes publicly available are indeed shedding fresh — and extremely accurate — light on old ways of thinking.

Almost never pursuing pitches beyond the strike zone is the starting point for Brandon Belt’s attacking game.

Even better, when he makes contact with a ball, he barrels it with amazing frequency.

While he has a greater than average tendency to whiff, this, along with his renowned good eye, has propelled him to the top of the leaderboards.

And, if you’re still waging war in the BeltWars, Statcast reports that this is the third time in the previous six years that Belt has had an anticipated Slugging Percentage that ranks among the top 10 percent of big league hitters.

No surprise here: Alex Dickerson excels in almost every aspect of his life.

In terms of strikeouts, he is in the 79th percentile.

While Mike Yastrzemski has been more like Belt in his approach, The two primary areas that assist batters flourish are covered by him, and he’s been exceptionally disciplined this year, with a Chase rate of 20 percent, which is far lower than the league average (see chart below) (28 percent ).

  • His average launch angle (just under 20 degrees) is designed to get those hard hit balls up in the air where they can do the most damage, and he has done exactly that.
  • Similarly to Belt, he restricts the ability of pitchers to target his swing and miss inclination by remaining so steadfastly in the strikezone.
  • Everyone who watches the 2020 Giants has grown to appreciate his clutch at bats, which rank him sixth on the club with a 140 wRC+.
  • The fact that Solano has hit 47 batted balls does not rule out the possibility of him hitting a homerun.
  • But keep in mind that “Barrels” is a mix of striking the ball forcefully while also hitting it in the air at a launch angle that enhances success.
  • Clearly, Donnie Barrels isn’t a good fit for this.
  • He does, in fact, communicate with us.

And he’s also good at one other thing: hitting line drives.

This season, his 41 percent Line Drive rate is more than 15 percent higher than the league average, according to Baseball Reference.

Because of his inability to distinguish between good and bad pitches and his inclination to chase after pitches outside of the zone, Solano has struggled this season, but his ability to make consistent contact all over the hitting zone has compensated for that.

With exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrels all rating among the lowest 20 percent of big leaguers this season, Dubon has established himself as a maestro of poor contact this season.

Despite this, he has managed to maintain a batting average that is virtually league average due to his high rate of contact.

Despite the fact that there is more blue than you would like to see on the chart above (and BABIP regression would be devastating to him), he has been able to defend his spot in the lineup mostly because his K percent, Whiff rate, and predicted BA are all above average.

Scuffling Joey Bart, on the other hand, has been having problems all season since he hasn’t yet been able to secure one of the three legs that he needs to stand on.

Identifying and concentrating on one of those three things that he does well is the first step toward climbing out of the hole he’s been in.

Tromp has been a dismal performer with the stick so far this season, according to the statistics.

This man is in possession of 219 OBP.

Although Tromphas had a good season overall, there was one area where he excelled, as shown in the Giants’ Barrel Rate figure above.

He hasn’t made a lot of contact this year, but the contact he has made has been at the highest possible volume, which is unusual for him.

As primary colors, consider these three elements: make contact, hit it hard, and don’t pursue the pitcher’s pitches.

Basically, if you’re particularly excellent at any one of those three things — making loads of contact, staying in the strike zone as much as possible, crushing the few balls that you do manage to connect with — you’ll be on your way to being a major leaguer bat.

It is preferable to be a purple hitter rather than an orange or green hitter, for instance.

Contact hitter who maintains control of the strike zone throughout his career.

Also important: a great superstar brings all three of these aspects together.

A Mookie Betts is the result of a mixture of these two factors (99th percentile in Whiff percent , 81st in Hard Hit, Chase Rate well below average).

The Giants are also attempting to establish an offensive profile throughout their squad, which is taking time to develop. Specify your thoughts in the comments section

Lies, Damned Lies: Another Look at Plate Discipline

Juan Pierre and Manny Ramirez are teammates. Which player has superior plate discipline? During his major league career, Ramirez has gotten an unintentional walk in 11.3 percent of his plate appearances, and Pierre has drawn one in 5.9 percent of his plate appearances. For the majority of us, that is where the conversation begins and ends. Let’s pretend you’re a pitcher for a moment. Juan Pierre, Manny Ramirez, and others. Which player are you planning on hitting with a strike? Kevin Goldstein’s fantastic post reminded me of some previous study I’d done on this topic, which had gotten buried in the mix of PECOTA and Baseball Between the Numbers and everything else that was going on.

There is considerable controversy regarding whether it should be included within the wider category of “hitting” or whether it should be considered a separate category, but it is a talent in any case.

It is my intention to persuade you that walk rate is only part of the narrative and not the complete story, as I will (hopefully) be able to demonstrate.

Plate discipline, in my opinion, is comprised of three talents that are slightly interconnected:

  1. Good, hittable pitches should be targeted
  2. Poor, unhittable ones should be avoided. Taking charge of the at bat

First and foremost, the first two points should be self-evident. I’ve placed the “swinging at excellent pitches” talent at the top of the list because it’s the most crucial; a batter could get one very hittable pitch in his wheelhouse for every seven or eight thrown, and failing to swing at it would be a mistake of monumental proportions. On top of that, an average batting line of 1.000.000.000.000.000 would be of little benefit. (However, I am really pleased with my.250/.810/.250 result in the 8th grade recreational league.

  1. “Managing the at bat” is something that I plan to investigate in greater depth throughout the course of this season, along with some forays into game theory and other related topics.
  2. A slider that seems to be barely hanging over the inner half of the plate is thrown to you when the count is 1-0 and you are batting against a fastball.
  3. Or should you hold out for something better at the risk of being hit by two strikes?
  4. But, let’s get back to the studies that I discussed before.
  5. The “chase percentage,” which is the frequency with which a batter swings at a pitch that is outside of the strike zone, was included in these scouting reports.
  6. Because the Inside Edge information was hidden behind ESPN.com’s subscription wall, I’m not going to provide specific numbers.
  7. It was included in the Inside Edge reports that the chase % for each of the eight “corners” of the strike zone was calculated separately, but not as an aggregate figure; I simply summed the eight individual percentages to obtain the overall result.

However, I was able to calculate chase percentages for 71 batters on postseason teams who had at least 250 plate appearances during the regular season.

Let us begin by considering a number of straightforward correlations: chase percentage / unintentional walk rate (in percent): -.68 The Chase Percentage / the Strikeout Rate are both 0.09.

Although there is a link between pursuit % and strikeout rate, it is not significant.

Because certain types of batters have more of an incentive to chase pitches than others–specifically, strong hitters who get fewer quality pitches to hit–I believe this is the case.

If you’re Juan Pierre, you take the sucker and attempt to draw a walk, knowing that the most you can hope for is to end up on first base.

Despite the fact that there is a significant link between the two, I feel that the relationship is actually the opposite: power produces walking.

This conclusion should be quite self-evident, and it brings us back to the point that we stated earlier: big league pitchers are intelligent enough to throw far more hittable pitches to the Juan Pierres of the world than they do to the Manny Ramirezes of the world.

The following table shows the anticipated walk rates for players with varying chase percentages while keeping SLG constant.

The following link between slugging percentage and walk rate, with chase % held constant, can also be investigated: Keep in mind that if we stretched these three lines leftward to include an SLG ofzero, we’d see that the player wasn’t forecast to draw any walks at all; he’d simply never see a pitch outside of the strike zone until the pitcher was forced to throw outside of his comfort zone.

Of course, the greatest pitchers will be able to have their cake and eat it too by throwing challenging pitches within the strike zone, and the best hitters will be able to press the issue by refusing to chase a wayward ball if the situation calls for it.

This, on the other hand, does not promise good for their prospects in any way.

As soon as it became evident that he was incapable of producing any type of home run power, his walk rate dropped by half to 5.4 percent, and his strikeout rate dropped by the same amount.

At least in one aspect, the scouts are correct: all the plate discipline in the world won’t help a player if it isn’t combined with a sound, well-balanced approach to hitting.

Thank you for reading

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